Thesis Речь к диссертации (Школьные сочинения)

Dear Chairperson and Committee Members!

I am going to present my thesis.

In the current context of world economy there is not only the strengthening of cooperative relations between companies from around the world but also there is the growing competition among them. This tendency has also affected the world market of transport services. It is worth noting that the market of road passenger transport is dynamically developing and holds one of the leading position. Due to its economic potential and territory

ussia cannot ignore global processes throughout the world.

The market of road passenger transport is fast developing. Thus, the relevance of my research has been caused by its practical value of undertaking a comprehensive study of competitiveness of Russian airline companies and

ussian potential on the world market of air services.

I'd like to draw your attention to Slide 2 and Handout 1. There you can find more detailed information about the target, the scope of the study, its objective and tasks.

According to the World

Bank the volume of passenger traffic has increased 2, 36 fold for the last 27 years.

The dynamics of the volume of passenger traffic between 1990-2015 is shown in Figure 1.

It should be said that under review the market structure has also changed. I'd like you to look at Charts 2 and 3 which show the structure of the world market of air passenger transportation between 1990-2015. The degree of market concentration has been calculated to estimate the changing market conditions. Our calculations are based on two indicators: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and Concentration Rate (CR). The results are given in Table1.

The main components of competitiveness of airlines have been defined due to the analysis of

ussian and foreign literature. You can see these data in Table 2. Having analysed

ussian and foreign airlines we have assessed the performance of

ussian airlines. These data are shown in Table 2 and described in details in Figures 4-20.

To identify the potential development of

ussian airlines to non-CIS countries we have built the models of time series for the following components:

- the transportation of passengers to non-CIS countries

- the non-CIS countries passenger turnover

- the non -CIS countries passenger load factor

- the payload factor applied to the route to non-CIS countries

The results of forecasting models are given in Tables 3-6.

The dynamics of air transportation is known to depend on several macro economic factors. Correlation - regressive analysis has been carried out to identify the macro economic factors affecting the growth of international air transportation undertaken by

ussian airlines.

The International Air Transport Association in its annual report of 2016 has mentioned the following factors:

- GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth

- the world trade turnover

- oil prices

and some others.

In our research we have used the index of industrial production instead of GDP since the official data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) are not available at the moment. The index of industrial production has high correlation with GDP. Moreover, the index of industrial production is demonstrating the same trends of dynamics as GDP.

A number of linear regressive models have been estimated to identify the factor affecting a passenger or a cargo turnover to non-CIS countries. Our research has shown that the index of industrial production has no statistically significant effect on any resulting factor. That's why it has been excluded from the model. As a result we have obtained a statistically significant model and presented it in Table 7.

Therefore, we have come to the conclusion that oil prices and the amount of foreign trade turnover of the country influence the volume of air transportation. To sum it up we should say that in spite of the changes in the structure of international market of air transportation and the growth of air passenger traffic

ussian airlines are not as competitive as their foreign partners. Nowadays taking into account an unstable economic and political situation

ussian airlines cannot be a leader on the international market of air passenger traffic.

Thank you for your attention!